Objective The aim was to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use in the Chuan-Dian Ecological Barrier Zone over the past 30 years, and in order to predict and simulate future land use patterns under multiple scenarios.

Method The 7 periods (at 5-year intervals) of land use remote sensing data from 1990 to 2020 were utilized, combined with the land use dynamic degree, land use transition matrix and scenario simulations using the PLUS model.

Result Forest land area continued to expand, its proportion increased from 59.91% to 63.16%; while construction land increased rapidly (by 302.02%). In contrast, grassland and wetland degraded significantly (decreasing by 15.73% and 86.56%, respectively). Comprehensive analysis incorporating natural and socio-economic factors indicated that climate change, urbanization and ecological projects jointly drove the evolution of the land use pattern. The simulation results for 2020, validated by a Kappa coefficient of 0.913 and an overall accuracy of 0.952, confirmed the applicability of the PLUS model for land use simulation in this study. Four scenarios (natural development, urban expansion, food security and ecological protection) were established to simulate and predict land use changes for 2030 and 2060. The natural development and urban expansion scenarios prioritize economic growth but at the cost of cultivated land and ecological space. The food security scenario safeguards cultivated land but suppresses forest land growth. The ecological protection scenario enhances ecological functions but constrains agricultural space.

Conclusion The integrated scenario simulation results can provide scientific references for regional spatial planning, ecological protection and restoration, and sustainable development decision-making.